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Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow — Premier League 2018

Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow
5/28/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Dinamo Moscow43%
×Draw25%
Lokomotiv Moscow32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moscow
1.53
Lokomotiv Moscow
1.29

Dinamo Moscow creates 19% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moscow
1.64
Lokomotiv Moscow
1.52

allows per match

Dinamo Moscow
1.06
Lokomotiv Moscow
1.43

finishing

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moscow ↓

Lokomotiv Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Moscow or draw
68%
Dinamo Moscow or Lokomotiv Moscow
75%
Draw or Lokomotiv Moscow
57%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
21%
Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
78%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
45%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
20%
Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals
72%
Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals
37%
Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
57%
Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moscow at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

Lokomotiv Moscow away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.64 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.53

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.52 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dinamo Moscow scores more
43%
level
25%
Lokomotiv Moscow scores more
32%

Dinamo Moscow at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Dinamo Moscow 2–4 Lokomotiv Moscow

Lokomotiv Moscow beat Dinamo Moscow 4-2 in Premier League on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moskva.