Dinamo Makhachkala 1–0 CSKA Moscow: Result & Stats

Dinamo Makhachkala

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CSKA Moscow

11/5/2025

Cup · Quarter-finalsAnzhi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala26%

×Draw28%

CSKA Moscow46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MakhachkalaExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.36

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.96

CSKA Moscow

1.36

CSKA Moscow creates 42% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 26 away

1.00

creates per match

1.58

1.14

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.00

CSKA Moscow

1.58

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.14

CSKA Moscow

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

CSKA Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw

54%

Dinamo Makhachkala or CSKA Moscow

72%

Draw or CSKA Moscow

74%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

9%

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

62%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

25%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

7%

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

74%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

39%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

37%

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.00 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

CSKA Moscow attack 1.58 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

26%

level

28%

CSKA Moscow scores more

46%

CSKA Moscow at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff