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CSKA Moscow vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Cup 2019

CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscowadvanced
Pens
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
11/26/2025CupCup · Quarter-finalsVEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

CSKA Moscow48%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Makhachkala26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moscow
1.49
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.02

CSKA Moscow creates 46% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 12 away

creates per match

CSKA Moscow
1.65
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.33

allows per match

CSKA Moscow
0.70
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.33

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw
74%
CSKA Moscow or Dinamo Makhachkala
74%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
52%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
24%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
77%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
44%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
19%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
64%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
27%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
65%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.65 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.49

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.33 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more
48%
level
26%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
26%

CSKA Moscow at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: CSKA Moscow 2–1 Dinamo Makhachkala

CSKA Moscow beat Dinamo Makhachkala 2-1 in Cup on November 26, 2025.

The match was played at VEB Arena in Moscow.