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CSKA Moscow vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Premier League 2018

CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
3/21/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22VEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

CSKA Moscow60%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Makhachkala16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moscow
1.65
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.71

CSKA Moscow creates 132% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 31 away

creates per match

CSKA Moscow
1.87
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.52

allows per match

CSKA Moscow
0.90
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.42

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw
84%
CSKA Moscow or Dinamo Makhachkala
76%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
40%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
33%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
81%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
49%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
23%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
51%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
16%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
79%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 120 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.87 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.65

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.52 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more
60%
level
24%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
16%

CSKA Moscow at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: CSKA Moscow 3–1 Dinamo Makhachkala

CSKA Moscow beat Dinamo Makhachkala 3-1 in Premier League on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at VEB Arena in Moscow.