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Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow — Premier League 2018

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
10/19/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Anzhi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala34%
×Draw29%
CSKA Moscow37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.06
CSKA Moscow
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 120 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.06
CSKA Moscow
1.34

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.90
CSKA Moscow
1.06

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

CSKA Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
63%
Dinamo Makhachkala or CSKA Moscow
71%
Draw or CSKA Moscow
66%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
13%
CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
65%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
29%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
9%
CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
67%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
31%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
48%
CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.06 + CSKA Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

CSKA Moscow attack 1.34 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
34%
level
29%
CSKA Moscow scores more
37%

CSKA Moscow at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow

CSKA Moscow beat Dinamo Makhachkala 1-0 in Premier League on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Anzhi Arena in Kaspiysk.