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Dinamo Kirov vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Dinamo Kirov
Dinamo Kirov
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
5/30/2026Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Spring Season Silver - 16VyatSShOR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Kirov54%
×Draw22%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Kirov
1.89
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.17

Dinamo Kirov creates 62% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dinamo Kirov
2.22
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.33

allows per match

Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.56

finishing

Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Kirov ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dinamo Kirov or draw
77%
Dinamo Kirov or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
78%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
46%

Winning margin

Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+
31%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals
85%
Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals
56%
Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals
29%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
69%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
33%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)
70%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Kirov at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Kirov attack 2.22 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.89

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.33 + Dinamo Kirov defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dinamo Kirov scores more
54%
level
22%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
23%

Dinamo Kirov at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dinamo Kirov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Dinamo Kirov 3–2 Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Dinamo Kirov beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3-2 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on May 30, 2026.

The match was played at VyatSShOR.