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Dinamo Kirov vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Dinamo Kirov
Dinamo Kirov
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8/3/2025Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 3VyatSShOR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Kirov44%
×Draw28%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Kirov
1.28
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.95

Dinamo Kirov creates 35% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.78

allows per match

Dinamo Kirov
1.11
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.56

finishing

Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Kirov ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Kirov or draw
72%
Dinamo Kirov or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
72%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
56%

Winning margin

Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+
20%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals
37%
Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals
14%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
61%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
25%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)
61%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Kirov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Kirov attack 1.00 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 0.78 + Dinamo Kirov defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dinamo Kirov scores more
44%
level
28%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
28%

Dinamo Kirov at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dinamo Kirov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Kirov vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Alaniya Vladikavkaz beat Dinamo Kirov 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on August 3, 2025.

The match was played at VyatSShOR.