Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2–1 Dinamo Kirov

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Kirov

9/28/2025

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 11Respublikanskij Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz37%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Kirov39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya VladikavkazExpected goals in this matchDinamo Kirov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.50

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.45

Dinamo Kirov

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.33

creates per match

1.22

1.78

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

Dinamo Kirov

1.22

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.78

Dinamo Kirov

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Dinamo Kirov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw

61%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Dinamo Kirov

75%

Draw or Dinamo Kirov

63%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

17%

Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

77%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

42%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

18%

Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals

78%

Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals

44%

Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

49%

Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Dinamo Kirov away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.33 + Dinamo Kirov defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Dinamo Kirov attack 1.22 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

37%

level

25%

Dinamo Kirov scores more

39%

Dinamo Kirov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Kirov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff