Dinamo Bucuresti 0–1 Arges Pitesti: Result & Stats

Dinamo Bucuresti

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arges Pitesti

R. Matos 74'

3/1/2026

Liga I · Round 29Stadionul Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Dinamo Bucuresti50%

×Draw26%

Arges Pitesti24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BucurestiExpected goals in this matchArges Pitesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.98

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.54

Arges Pitesti

0.98

Dinamo Bucuresti creates 57% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

1.85

creates per match

0.94

1.03

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.85

Arges Pitesti

0.94

allows per match

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.03

Arges Pitesti

1.22

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Dinamo Bucuresti-0.46scores less

Arges Pitesti+0.06on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bucuresti ↓

Arges Pitesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Bucuresti or draw

76%

Dinamo Bucuresti or Arges Pitesti

74%

Draw or Arges Pitesti

50%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+

26%

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals

79%

Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals

45%

Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals

20%

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

62%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

26%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)

68%

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bucuresti at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.03 · 23 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.85 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.54

Arges Pitesti attack 0.94 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more

50%

level

26%

Arges Pitesti scores more

24%

Dinamo Bucuresti at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dinamo Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

C. Cabuz

Arges Pitesti · G

8.3

Match Events

41'

Raul Opruț

52'

A. Pop← M. Karamoko

66'

C. Mihai← A. Musi

66'

I. Tarba← D. Armstrong

68'

Y. Pirvu← C. Micovschi

74'

R. Matos↳ F. Borta

75'

J. Ikoko← M. Sivis

75'

G. Milanov← A. Soro

78'

R. Moldoveanu← A. Bettaieb

86'

90+4'

90+3'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DinamoArges

Overview

64%Possession36%

11Total Shots10

1.43Expected Goals (xG)0.63

4Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots10

5On Target5

4Off Target5

2Blocked0

9Inside Box2

2Outside Box8

Passing

64%Possession36%

530Total Passes304

426Accurate Passes213

80%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0