Arges Pitesti 1–1 Dinamo Bucuresti: Result & Stats

Arges Pitesti

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Bucuresti

R. Matos 44' (pen)

E. Gnahore 76'

4/4/2026

Liga I · Championship Group - 3Stadionul Orasenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Arges Pitesti38%

×Draw29%

Dinamo Bucuresti33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arges PitestiExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bucuresti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.07

Arges Pitesti

1.18

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.07

Arges Pitesti creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 23 away

1.07

creates per match

1.23

0.92

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Arges Pitesti

1.07

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.23

allows per match

Arges Pitesti

0.92

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.28

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Arges Pitesti-0.32scores less

Dinamo Bucuresti-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Dinamo Bucuresti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw

67%

Arges Pitesti or Dinamo Bucuresti

71%

Draw or Dinamo Bucuresti

62%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

16%

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

69%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

33%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

12%

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals

66%

Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals

29%

Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

54%

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.28 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.07 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.23 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more

38%

level

29%

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more

33%

Arges Pitesti at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

73

A. Rosca

Dinamo Bucuresti · G

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Alexandru Musi

17'

Andrei Mărginean

42'

Florin BorțaPenalty confirmed

42'

Danny Armstrong

44'

R. MatosPenalty

46'

M. Karamoko← D. Armstrong

57'

G. Puscas← A. Pop

57'

E. Gnahore← I. Marginean

64'

I. Radescu← V. Rata

70'

A. Mazilu← A. Musi

75'

R. Moldoveanu← R. Matos

75'

Y. Pirvu← C. Micovschi

76'

85'

90'

90'

90'

90'

90+2'

K. Brobbey← A. Bettaieb

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArgesDinamo

Overview

34%Possession66%

12Total Shots16

2.40Expected Goals (xG)2.26

6Corners7

11Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots16

5On Target6

3Off Target5

4Blocked5

9Inside Box13

3Outside Box3

Passing

34%Possession66%

238Total Passes490

143Accurate Passes399

60%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1