Arges Pitesti vs Dinamo Bucuresti — Liga I 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 12+ matches
Arges Pitesti38%
Dinamo Bucuresti33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Arges Pitesti creates 10% more chances
Season form · 12 home / 23 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Arges Pitesti ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches
Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.28 · 23 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Arges Pitesti attack 1.07 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18
Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.23 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.07
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Arges Pitesti at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
Arges Pitesti host Dinamo Bucuresti on Saturday, 3 June 2023 at 18:00. The match is part of the Liga I 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Arges Pitesti vs Dinamo Bucuresti
Arges Pitesti beat Dinamo Bucuresti 4-2 in Liga I on June 3, 2023.
Goals: A. Tofan (14'), A. Jakoliš (15'), L. Ghezali (40'), A. Garita (47', 51'), A. Pop (60').
Arges Pitesti controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 10.
The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Mioveni.