Difaa EL Jadida 2–1 Chabab Ben Guerir

Difaa EL Jadida

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Chabab Ben Guerir

11/5/2023

Botola 2 · Round 9Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida50%

×Draw29%

Chabab Ben Guerir22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Difaa EL JadidaExpected goals in this matchChabab Ben Guerir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.75

Difaa EL Jadida

1.30

Chabab Ben Guerir

0.75

Difaa EL Jadida creates 73% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

1.40

creates per match

0.83

0.67

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida

1.40

Chabab Ben Guerir

0.83

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida

0.67

Chabab Ben Guerir

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

Chabab Ben Guerir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw

78%

Difaa EL Jadida or Chabab Ben Guerir

71%

Draw or Chabab Ben Guerir

50%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+

23%

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals

73%

Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals

37%

Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals

14%

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals

53%

Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals

17%

Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)

70%

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Chabab Ben Guerir away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.21 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.40 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.83 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more

50%

level

29%

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more

22%

Difaa EL Jadida at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff