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Difaa EL Jadida vs Chabab Ben Guerir — Cup 2020

Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadidaadvanced
AET
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
3/31/2023CupCup · Round of 16Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida40%
×Draw24%
Chabab Ben Guerir35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difaa EL Jadida
1.54
Chabab Ben Guerir
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida
2.33
Chabab Ben Guerir
1.50

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida
1.33
Chabab Ben Guerir
0.75

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par
Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

Chabab Ben Guerir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw
65%
Difaa EL Jadida or Chabab Ben Guerir
76%
Draw or Chabab Ben Guerir
60%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
20%
Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
79%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
45%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
20%
Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
76%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
41%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
53%
Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Chabab Ben Guerir away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 2.33 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 1.50 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more
40%
level
24%
Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
35%

Difaa EL Jadida at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Difaa EL Jadida vs Chabab Ben Guerir

Difaa EL Jadida beat Chabab Ben Guerir 2-1 in Cup on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi in Mazghan.