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Chabab Ben Guerir vs Difaa EL Jadida — Botola 2 2025

Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
5/5/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 24Stade Municipal Ben Guerir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab Ben Guerir33%
×Draw36%
Difaa EL Jadida31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.80
Difaa EL Jadida
0.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 15 away

creates per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.93
Difaa EL Jadida
0.80

allows per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.74
Difaa EL Jadida
0.67

finishing

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par
Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Ben Guerir ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–116%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Chabab Ben Guerir or draw
69%
Chabab Ben Guerir or Difaa EL Jadida
64%
Draw or Difaa EL Jadida
67%

Winning margin

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
11%
Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
55%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
19%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
5%
Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
54%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
18%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
51%
Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Ben Guerir at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.74 · 120 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.93 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Difaa EL Jadida attack 0.80 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
33%
level
36%
Difaa EL Jadida scores more
31%

Chabab Ben Guerir at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Chabab Ben Guerir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab Ben Guerir vs Difaa EL Jadida

Chabab Ben Guerir and Difaa EL Jadida drew 0-0 in Botola 2 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Ben Guerir in Ben Guerir.