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Desna vs Dynamo Kyiv — Premier League 2026

Desna
Desna
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
A. Gitchenko 90+2'
I. Kargbo 26' (OG)
E. Kartushov 12'
V. Tsygankov 86', 4'
6/28/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 6Stadion im. Yuriya Haharina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Desna30%
×Draw24%
Dynamo Kyiv46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Desna
1.28
Dynamo Kyiv
1.66

Dynamo Kyiv creates 30% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 98 away

creates per match

Desna
1.61
Dynamo Kyiv
2.27

allows per match

Desna
1.05
Dynamo Kyiv
0.95

finishing

Desna+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desna ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Desna or draw
54%
Desna or Dynamo Kyiv
76%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
70%

Winning margin

Desna wins by 2+
13%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Desna 1+ goals
72%
Desna 2+ goals
37%
Desna 3+ goals
14%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
81%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
49%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Desna (draw refunded)
39%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desna at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.95 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desna attack 1.61 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.28

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.27 + Desna defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Desna scores more
30%
level
24%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
46%

Dynamo Kyiv at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
V. Tsygankov
12'
E. Kartushov
26'
I. KargboOwn goal
28'
E. Kartushov
28'
V. Shepelev
34'
V. Ogirya
46'
I. Kargbo← C. De Pena
59'
V. Shepelev← S. Sydorchuk
62'
A. Shabanov
63'
O. Andrievsky← M. Duelund
75'
O. Kuzyk← A. Mostovy
75'
P. Budkivsky← A. Totovytsky
85'
O. Filippov← S. Starenkiy
86'
V. Tsygankov
87'
V. Buyalskyy← M. Shaparenko
90+1'
E. Kartushov← L. Arveladze
90+2'
A. Gitchenko
90+3'
A. Kadiri Mohammed

Possession

43%Desna

Shots

11Desna

Statistics

DesnaDynamo
Overview
43%Possession57%
11Total Shots13
5Corners5
15Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots13
7On Target7
4Off Target6
Passing
43%Possession57%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Desna vs Dynamo Kyiv

Desna beat Dynamo Kyiv 3-2 in Premier League on June 28, 2020.

Goals: V. Tsygankov (4', 86'), E. Kartushov (12'), I. Kargbo (26' o.g.), A. Gitchenko (90+2').

Dynamo Kyiv controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadion im. Yuriya Haharina in Chernihiv.