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Derry City vs Cork City — Premier Division 2025

Derry City
Derry City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cork City
Cork City
M. Duffy 74'
R. Boyce 65'
K. Nelson 14'
4/4/2025Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 8The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Derry City61%
×Draw22%
Cork City18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derry City
1.92
Cork City
0.92

Derry City creates 109% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 18 away

creates per match

Derry City
1.66
Cork City
0.78

allows per match

Derry City
1.06
Cork City
2.17

finishing

Derry City+0.00on par
Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City ↓

Cork City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Derry City or draw
82%
Derry City or Cork City
78%
Draw or Cork City
39%

Winning margin

Derry City wins by 2+
36%
Cork City wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Derry City 1+ goals
85%
Derry City 2+ goals
57%
Derry City 3+ goals
30%
Cork City 1+ goals
60%
Cork City 2+ goals
23%
Cork City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Derry City (draw refunded)
78%
Cork City (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.06 · 32 matches

Cork City away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City attack 1.66 + Cork City defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.92

Cork City attack 0.78 + Derry City defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Derry City scores more
61%
level
22%
Cork City scores more
18%

Derry City at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Derry City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. DuffyDerry CityDerry City
8.2

Match Events

14'
K. Nelson↳ B. Couto
40'
Rio Shipston
41'
Ben Doherty
55'
Carl Winchester
58'
Paul McMullan
61'
Ruairi Keating
62'
G. Whyte← S. Patton
62'
D. Thomas← P. McMullan
65'
R. Boyce↳ L. Boyce
69'
Milan Mbeng
70'
J. Fitzpatrick← K. Nelson
74'
M. Duffy↳ D. Thomas
79'
Michael Duffy
81'
M. Kiernan← B. Couto
81'
H. Skieters← R. Shipston
86'
R. Benson← B. Doherty
86'
S. Todd← C. Winchester
88'
D. Dunne← A. Nolan

Possession

56%Derry

Shots

18Derry

Pass accuracy

51%Derry

Statistics

DerryCork
Overview
56%Possession44%
18Total Shots4
8Corners6
15Fouls10
Shots
18Total Shots4
7On Target2
6Off Target2
5Blocked0
15Inside Box3
3Outside Box1
Passing
56%Possession44%
418Total Passes314
292Accurate Passes207
70%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
15Fouls10
4Yellow Cards3
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Derry City vs Cork City

Derry City beat Cork City 2-1 in Premier Division on April 4, 2025.

Goals: K. Nelson (14'), R. Boyce (65'), M. Duffy (74').

Derry City controlled possession (56%) and registered 18 shots to 4.

The match was played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Derry.