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Cork City vs Derry City — Premier Division 2025

Cork City
Cork City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Derry City
Derry City
M. Duffy 33'
11/1/2025Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 36Turners Cross

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cork City35%
×Draw28%
Derry City37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cork City
1.13
Derry City
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 31 away

creates per match

Cork City
1.06
Derry City
1.10

allows per match

Cork City
1.22
Derry City
1.19

finishing

Cork City+0.00on par
Derry City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City ↓

Derry City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cork City or draw
63%
Cork City or Derry City
72%
Draw or Derry City
65%

Winning margin

Cork City wins by 2+
14%
Derry City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cork City 1+ goals
68%
Cork City 2+ goals
31%
Cork City 3+ goals
11%
Derry City 1+ goals
69%
Derry City 2+ goals
32%
Derry City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cork City (draw refunded)
49%
Derry City (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cork City at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Derry City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cork City attack 1.06 + Derry City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Derry City attack 1.10 + Cork City defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cork City scores more
35%
level
28%
Derry City scores more
37%

Derry City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Derry City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
C. WinchesterDerry CityDerry City · M
8.3

Match Events

33'
M. Duffy↳ C. Winchester
46'
K. Nelson← M. Murray
53'
H. Nevin← D. Crowley
55'
Jamie Stott
65'
C. Lyons← R. Feely
65'
R. Keating← S. Maguire
65'
S. Murray← G. Bolger
65'
D. Mullen← G. Whyte
75'
Ronan Boyce
81'
M. Connolly← R. Benson
81'
A. Frizzell← S. Diallo

Possession

47%Cork

Shots

6Cork

Pass accuracy

49%Cork

Statistics

CorkDerry
Overview
47%Possession53%
6Total Shots10
9Corners5
5Fouls10
Shots
6Total Shots10
0On Target5
2Off Target3
4Blocked2
3Inside Box7
3Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
414Total Passes470
307Accurate Passes357
74%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
5Fouls10
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Premier Division: Cork City 0–1 Derry City

Derry City beat Cork City 1-0 in Premier Division on November 1, 2025.

Goals: M. Duffy (33').

Derry City controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at Turners Cross in Cork.