Cork City 0–1 Derry City: Result & Stats | FAI Cup

Cork City

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Derry City

S. Todd 72'

8/16/2024

FAI Cup · 3rd RoundTurner's Cross

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cork City40%

×Draw28%

Derry City32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cork CityExpected goals in this matchDerry City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.11

Cork City

1.27

Derry City

1.11

Cork City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.75

creates per match

1.60

0.63

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Cork City

1.75

Derry City

1.60

allows per match

Cork City

0.63

Derry City

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cork City+0.00on par

Derry City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City ↓

Derry City →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cork City or draw

68%

Cork City or Derry City

72%

Draw or Derry City

60%

Winning margin

Cork City wins by 2+

18%

Derry City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cork City 1+ goals

72%

Cork City 2+ goals

36%

Cork City 3+ goals

14%

Derry City 1+ goals

67%

Derry City 2+ goals

30%

Derry City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cork City (draw refunded)

55%

Derry City (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cork City at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Derry City away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cork City attack 1.75 + Derry City defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

Derry City attack 1.60 + Cork City defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cork City scores more

40%

level

28%

Derry City scores more

32%

Cork City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cork City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

45'

49'

55'

71'

72'

76'

C. Murphy← M. Dijksteel

79'

S. Murray

87'

D. Kelly← P. McMullan

Cork

Derry

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Clancy

76'▲C. Murphy←▼M. Dijksteel

Cork City substitutes

MurphyDowlingHealyCoffeyDrinanDohertyFitzpatrickKiernanBrookwell

Manager: R. Higgins

55'▲S. Todd←▼A. OReilly

71'▲S. Diallo←▼D. Mullen

87'▲D. Kelly←▼P. McMullan

Derry City substitutes

ToddDialloKellyHeaneyBarrWhelanOvendaleRyanDoherty

FAI Cup: Cork City 0–1 Derry City

Derry City beat Cork City 1-0 in FAI Cup on August 16, 2024.

Goals: S. Todd (72').

The match was played at Turner's Cross in Cork.

Cork City vs Derry City — FAI Cup 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FAI Cup: Cork City 0–1 Derry City