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Derby vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
K. Goudmijn 28'
9/14/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Derby40%
×Draw31%
Cardiff29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.10
Cardiff
0.90

Derby creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

creates per match

Derby
1.04
Cardiff
0.67

allows per match

Derby
1.12
Cardiff
1.17

finishing

Derby-0.04on par
Cardiff+0.16scores more

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Derby or draw
71%
Derby or Cardiff
69%
Draw or Cardiff
60%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
16%
Cardiff wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
67%
Derby 2+ goals
30%
Derby 3+ goals
10%
Cardiff 1+ goals
59%
Cardiff 2+ goals
23%
Cardiff 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
58%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.12 · 6 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.04 + Cardiff defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Cardiff attack 0.67 + Derby defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Derby scores more
40%
level
31%
Cardiff scores more
29%

Derby at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. Widell ZetterströmDerbyDerby · G
8.2

Match Events

20'
Ebou Adams
28'
K. Goudmijn↳ C. Elder
46'
W. Fish← P. Ng
50'
B. Osborn← D. Ozoh
55'
Joel Bagan
61'
William Fish
62'
O. Tanner← J. Bagan
62'
C. Willock← A. El Ghazi
65'
Joe Ralls
69'
Nathaniel Méndez-Laing
69'
M. Harness← N. Mendez-Laing
69'
A. Robertson← J. Ralls
69'
C. Ashford← W. Kanga
82'
C. Forsyth← C. Elder
82'
N. Phillips← K. Goudmijn

Possession

36%Derby

Shots

12Derby

Pass accuracy

46%Derby

Statistics

DerbyCardiff
Overview
36%Possession64%
12Total Shots9
1.41Expected Goals (xG)0.34
7Corners6
12Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots9
3On Target3
4Off Target5
5Blocked1
8Inside Box6
4Outside Box3
Passing
36%Possession64%
262Total Passes476
180Accurate Passes385
69%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
0.38Goals Prevented0.38
Discipline
12Fouls10
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Derby vs Cardiff

Derby beat Cardiff 1-0 in Championship on September 14, 2024.

Goals: K. Goudmijn (28').

Cardiff controlled possession (64%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.