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Cardiff vs Derby — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Derby
Derby
U. Ikpeazu 85'
3/1/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 23Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cardiff46%
×Draw26%
Derby28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.47
Derby
1.10

Cardiff creates 34% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.31
Derby
1.12

allows per match

Cardiff
1.08
Derby
1.63

finishing

Cardiff-0.45scores less
Derby-0.01on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
72%
Cardiff or Derby
74%
Draw or Derby
54%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
22%
Derby wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
77%
Cardiff 2+ goals
43%
Cardiff 3+ goals
18%
Derby 1+ goals
67%
Derby 2+ goals
30%
Derby 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
62%
Derby (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 7 matches

Derby away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.63 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.31 + Derby defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.47

Derby attack 1.12 + Cardiff defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cardiff scores more
46%
level
26%
Derby scores more
28%

Cardiff at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
P. NgCardiffCardiff · D
7.9

Match Events

26'
Isaak Davies
46'
C. Kazim-Richards← K. Bielik
52'
Lee Buchanan
62'
Curtis Davies
66'
U. Ikpeazu← J. Hugill
71'
M. Harris← I. Davies
76'
M. Ebiowei← L. Plange
78'
A. Doughty← J. Bagan
80'
Max Bird
84'
L. Sibley← J. Knight
85'
U. Ikpeazu↳ P. Ng
90+2'
Alfie Doughty
90+3'
Festy Ebosele

Possession

37%Cardiff

Shots

14Cardiff

Pass accuracy

47%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffDerby
Overview
37%Possession63%
14Total Shots9
3Corners6
11Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots9
4On Target1
6Off Target4
4Blocked4
5Inside Box8
9Outside Box1
Passing
37%Possession63%
340Total Passes618
259Accurate Passes533
76%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls10
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Derby

Cardiff beat Derby 1-0 in Championship on March 1, 2022.

Goals: U. Ikpeazu (85').

Derby controlled possession (63%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.