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Derby vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
J. Hugill 55'
5/7/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 46Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Derby47%
×Draw26%
Cardiff27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.45
Cardiff
1.02

Derby creates 42% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 61 away

creates per match

Derby
1.34
Cardiff
1.03

allows per match

Derby
1.00
Cardiff
1.56

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw
73%
Derby or Cardiff
74%
Draw or Cardiff
53%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
23%
Cardiff wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
77%
Derby 2+ goals
42%
Derby 3+ goals
18%
Cardiff 1+ goals
64%
Cardiff 2+ goals
27%
Cardiff 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
64%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 44 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.34 + Cardiff defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cardiff attack 1.03 + Derby defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Derby scores more
47%
level
26%
Cardiff scores more
27%

Derby at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
J. BaganCardiffCardiff · D
8.3

Match Events

46'
R. Colwill← O. Denham
55'
J. Hugill↳ E. King
59'
L. Plange← T. Lawrence
63'
I. Davies← E. King
65'
F. Ebosele← C. Forsyth
69'
Perry Ng
72'
K. Roos← R. Allsop
73'
Liam Thompson
78'
M. Watters← I. Davies
81'
Mark Harris

Possession

69%Derby

Shots

17Derby

Pass accuracy

54%Derby

Statistics

DerbyCardiff
Overview
69%Possession31%
17Total Shots3
7Corners1
9Fouls8
Shots
17Total Shots3
4On Target1
4Off Target1
9Blocked1
8Inside Box1
9Outside Box2
Passing
69%Possession31%
635Total Passes293
564Accurate Passes226
89%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Championship: Derby 0–1 Cardiff

Cardiff beat Derby 1-0 in Championship on May 7, 2022.

Goals: J. Hugill (55').

Derby controlled possession (69%) and registered 17 shots to 3.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.