Derby 3–0 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Derby

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol City

D. Ozoh 89'

K. Jackson 60'

K. Goudmijn 28'

8/31/2024

Championship · Round 4Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 46+ matches

Derby42%

×Draw28%

Bristol City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.03

Derby

1.29

Bristol City

1.03

Derby creates 25% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 58 away

1.22

creates per match

1.05

1.01

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Derby

1.22

Bristol City

1.05

allows per match

Derby

1.01

Bristol City

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Derby+0.00on par

Bristol City-0.08on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw

70%

Derby or Bristol City

72%

Draw or Bristol City

58%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

19%

Bristol City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

72%

Derby 2+ goals

37%

Derby 3+ goals

14%

Bristol City 1+ goals

64%

Bristol City 2+ goals

28%

Bristol City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

59%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bristol City attack 1.05 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Derby scores more

42%

level

28%

Bristol City scores more

30%

Derby at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Widell Zetterström

Derby · G

8.2

Match Events

28'

K. Goudmijn

60'

K. Jackson↳ J. Yates

64'

A. Mehmeti← M. Bird

64'

F. Mayulu← S. Armstrong

74'

T. Barkhuizen← N. Mendez-Laing

77'

Ryan Nyambe

83'

Y. Hirakawa← M. Sykes

83'

N. Wells← S. Twine

86'

C. Forsyth← J. Yates

86'

L. Thompson← K. Goudmijn

89'

D. Ozoh

90'

D. Brown← K. Jackson

90'

J. Ward← R. Nyambe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyBristol

Overview

36%Possession64%

19Total Shots13

1.67Expected Goals (xG)1.07

6Corners9

15Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots13

7On Target5

7Off Target3

5Blocked5

12Inside Box10

7Outside Box3

Passing

36%Possession64%

286Total Passes521

218Accurate Passes441

76%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

-1.12Goals Prevented-1.12

Discipline

15Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1