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Derby vs Bristol City — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bristol City
Bristol City
C. Morris 86'
S. Twine 35'
8/22/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 3Pride Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Derby43%
×Draw28%
Bristol City29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.32
Bristol City
1.04

Derby creates 27% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 21 away

creates per match

Derby
1.28
Bristol City
0.98

allows per match

Derby
1.11
Bristol City
1.36

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Bristol City-0.08on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw
71%
Derby or Bristol City
72%
Draw or Bristol City
57%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
20%
Bristol City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
73%
Derby 2+ goals
38%
Derby 3+ goals
15%
Bristol City 1+ goals
65%
Bristol City 2+ goals
28%
Bristol City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
59%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.11 · 29 matches

Bristol City away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.28 + Bristol City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bristol City attack 0.98 + Derby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Derby scores more
43%
level
28%
Bristol City scores more
29%

Derby at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
S. TwineBristol CityBristol City · F
7.9

Match Events

35'
S. Twine↳ M. Sykes
54'
S. Armstrong← E. Riis
59'
R. Brewster← A. Weimann
59'
J. Ward← R. Nyambe
59'
B. Clark← L. Thompson
65'
Jacob Widell Zetterström
70'
K. Goudmijn← D. Ozoh
70'
K. Jackson← D. Batth
72'
M. Bird← A. Randell
74'
Ebou Adams
86'
C. Morris
90+4'
Carlton Morris
90+4'
Y. Hirakawa← S. Twine

Possession

52%Derby

Shots

5Derby

Pass accuracy

50%Derby

Statistics

DerbyBristol
Overview
52%Possession48%
5Total Shots11
0.47Expected Goals (xG)0.76
4Corners5
15Fouls5
Shots
5Total Shots11
2On Target3
1Off Target4
2Blocked4
4Inside Box8
1Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
489Total Passes454
398Accurate Passes364
81%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
0.05Goals Prevented0.05
Discipline
15Fouls5
3Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Derby vs Bristol City

Derby and Bristol City drew 1-1 in Championship on August 22, 2025.

Goals: S. Twine (35'), C. Morris (86').

Derby controlled possession (52%) and registered 5 shots to 11.

The match was played at Pride Park in Derby.