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Derby vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Bristol City
Bristol City
C. Forsyth 61'
T. Klose 79'
A. Semenyo 38'
A. Weimann 10'
4/23/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 44Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 46+ matches

Derby42%
×Draw28%
Bristol City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.29
Bristol City
1.03

Derby creates 25% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 58 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Bristol City
1.05

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Bristol City
1.35

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Bristol City-0.08on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw
70%
Derby or Bristol City
72%
Draw or Bristol City
58%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
19%
Bristol City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
72%
Derby 2+ goals
37%
Derby 3+ goals
14%
Bristol City 1+ goals
64%
Bristol City 2+ goals
28%
Bristol City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
59%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bristol City attack 1.05 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Derby scores more
42%
level
28%
Bristol City scores more
30%

Derby at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
T. KloseBristol CityBristol City · D
7.7

Match Events

9'
Joe Williams
10'
A. Weimann↳ C. Martin
16'
Ayman Benarous
23'
S. Bell← A. Scott
38'
A. Semenyo
54'
Nathan Byrne
59'
L. Plange← L. Thompson
59'
L. Sibley← B. Cybulski
61'
C. Forsyth↳ M. Ebiowei
63'
Antoine Semenyo
72'
D. Idehen← A. Benarous
77'
H. Massengo← S. Bell
79'
T. Klose↳ M. James
82'
D. Robinson← L. Watson
82'
J. Knight← M. Bird
87'
A. King← J. Williams

Possession

67%Derby

Shots

11Derby

Pass accuracy

53%Derby

Statistics

DerbyBristol
Overview
67%Possession33%
11Total Shots18
2Corners5
10Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots18
2On Target7
7Off Target9
2Blocked2
6Inside Box10
5Outside Box8
Passing
67%Possession33%
541Total Passes258
467Accurate Passes196
86%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
4Offsides1

Championship: Derby 1–3 Bristol City

Bristol City beat Derby 3-1 in Championship on April 23, 2022.

Goals: A. Weimann (10'), A. Semenyo (38'), C. Forsyth (61'), T. Klose (79').

Derby controlled possession (67%) and registered 11 shots to 18.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.