Derby 1–2 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Derby

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Bristol City

J. Marriott 85'

J. Brownhill 45+1'

A. Weimann 16'

8/20/2019

Championship · Round 4Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 46+ matches

Derby41%

×Draw28%

Bristol City31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.06

Derby

1.28

Bristol City

1.06

Derby creates 21% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 62 away

1.22

creates per match

1.10

1.01

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Derby

1.22

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

Derby

1.01

Bristol City

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Derby+0.00on par

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw

69%

Derby or Bristol City

72%

Draw or Bristol City

59%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

19%

Bristol City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

72%

Derby 2+ goals

37%

Derby 3+ goals

14%

Bristol City 1+ goals

65%

Bristol City 2+ goals

29%

Bristol City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

57%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.28

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Derby scores more

41%

level

28%

Bristol City scores more

31%

Derby at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

A. Weimann

Bristol City · F

7.8

Match Events

16'

A. Weimann↳ K. Palmer

45+1'

J. Brownhill↳ J. Hunt

46'

F. Jozefzoon← S. Malone

60'

C. O'Dowda← K. Palmer

68'

J. Marriott← M. Bennett

70'

F. Diedhiou← B. Afobe

75'

79'

80'

81'

82'

Pedro Pereira← J. Hunt

85'

J. Marriott↳ F. Jozefzoon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyBristol

Overview

67%Possession33%

19Total Shots8

9Corners0

12Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots8

4On Target3

6Off Target4

9Blocked1

9Inside Box6

10Outside Box2

Passing

67%Possession33%

649Total Passes330

551Accurate Passes234

85%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1