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Derby vs Blackburn — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
Preview
15:00
Blackburn
Blackburn
1/1/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 25Pride Park
Big match
40%
Blackburn
model favours
32%28%40%

Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Derby32%
×Draw28%
Blackburn40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.09
Blackburn
1.25

Blackburn creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Derby
1.08
Blackburn
1.39

allows per match

Derby
1.10
Blackburn
1.10

finishing

Derby-0.08on par
Blackburn-0.25scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw
60%
Derby or Blackburn
72%
Draw or Blackburn
68%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
13%
Blackburn wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
66%
Derby 2+ goals
30%
Derby 3+ goals
10%
Blackburn 1+ goals
71%
Blackburn 2+ goals
36%
Blackburn 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
45%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.10 · 7 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.10 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.08 + Blackburn defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.09

Blackburn attack 1.39 + Derby defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Derby scores more
32%
level
28%
Blackburn scores more
40%

Blackburn at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Derby sit 8, Blackburn 22 in the table
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 4 goals
  • Blackburn fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Derby
Balanced
Blackburn
Defensively solid
46%Possession50%
75%Pass accuracy75%
10.3Shots10.3
1.07xGBiggest gap1.33
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
DerbyBlackburn

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Derby
0
Draws
2
Blackburn
Avg goals: 4BTTS: 100%
3–12–12–12–41–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Derby
LWLWL
Blackburn
DLWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derby face Blackburn (Championship)

Championship returns with Derby hosting Blackburn. Match starts January 1, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Derby host Blackburn at Pride Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.