Blackburn 4–2 Derby: Result & Stats | Championship

Blackburn

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Derby

Y. Ohashi 84'

S. Szmodics 76'

A. Weimann 72'

T. Dolan 19'

K. Wilson 88'

C. Nelson 67'

8/9/2024

Championship · Round 1Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Blackburn44%

×Draw28%

Derby28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.97

Blackburn

1.31

Derby

0.97

Blackburn creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 34 away

1.28

creates per match

0.98

0.97

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Blackburn

1.28

Derby

0.98

allows per match

Blackburn

0.97

Derby

1.35

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Blackburn-0.15scores less

Derby+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

72%

Blackburn or Derby

72%

Draw or Derby

56%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

20%

Derby wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

73%

Blackburn 2+ goals

38%

Blackburn 3+ goals

14%

Derby 1+ goals

62%

Derby 2+ goals

25%

Derby 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

62%

Derby (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 15 matches

Derby away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.28 + Derby defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Derby attack 0.98 + Blackburn defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blackburn scores more

44%

level

28%

Derby scores more

28%

Blackburn at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Szmodics

Blackburn · M

7.9

Match Events

11'

Tom Barkhuizen

19'

T. Dolan

64'

A. Weimann← R. Hedges

65'

S. Szmodics← J. Rankin-Costello

65'

Y. Ohashi← M. Gueye

66'

J. Collins← T. Barkhuizen

67'

C. Nelson↳ N. Mendez-Laing

72'

A. Weimann↳ H. Carter

73'

E. Adams← K. Goudmijn

76'

S. Szmodics↳ C. Brittain

82'

James Collins

84'

Y. Ohashi↳ S. Szmodics

86'

T. Fornah← D. Ozoh

86'

L. Thompson← B. Osborn

86'

C. Forsyth← C. Elder

87'

Tyrhys Dolan

87'

D. Batth← T. Dolan

88'

K. Wilson↳ N. Mendez-Laing

90'

Eiran Joe Cashin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnDerby

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots12

2.05Expected Goals (xG)1.08

1Corners9

9Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots12

7On Target4

4Off Target6

0Blocked2

7Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

398Total Passes425

346Accurate Passes356

87%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.61Goals Prevented-0.61

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1