Derby 3–1 Blackburn: Result & Stats | Championship

Derby

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Blackburn

R. Brewster 82'

M. Clarke 74'

B. Brereton Diaz 55'

H. Carter 45'

2/28/2026

Championship · Round 35Pride Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Derby34%

×Draw28%

Blackburn38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.22

Derby

1.14

Blackburn

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

1.07

creates per match

1.31

1.12

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Derby

1.07

Blackburn

1.31

allows per match

Derby

1.12

Blackburn

1.20

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Derby+0.16scores more

Blackburn-0.09on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw

62%

Derby or Blackburn

72%

Draw or Blackburn

66%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

14%

Blackburn wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

68%

Derby 2+ goals

32%

Derby 3+ goals

11%

Blackburn 1+ goals

70%

Blackburn 2+ goals

34%

Blackburn 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

47%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.12 · 13 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.07 + Blackburn defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Derby defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Derby scores more

34%

level

28%

Blackburn scores more

38%

Blackburn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

D. Murkin

Derby · D

7.7

Match Events

36'

Sammie Szmodics

36'

Adam Forshaw

45'

Lewis Travis

45'

H. Carter↳ Y. Ribeiro

46'

Bobby Clark

55'

B. Brereton Diaz↳ D. Murkin

56'

K. Montgomery← A. Forshaw

58'

Eiran Cashin

60'

Yuri Ribeiro

62'

R. Brewster← C. Morris

69'

H. Pickering← Y. Ribeiro

69'

M. Jorgensen← A. Gudjohnsen

74'

M. Clarke

79'

Hayden Carter

80'

D. Ozoh← S. Szmodics

80'

D. De Neve← M. Baradji

80'

T. Gardner-Hickman← H. Carter

82'

R. Brewster↳ D. Murkin

87'

C. Forsyth← D. Murkin

87'

O. Fraulo← M. Clarke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyBlackburn

Overview

49%Possession51%

14Total Shots11

1.44Expected Goals (xG)0.90

2Corners3

10Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots11

6On Target3

6Off Target4

2Blocked4

8Inside Box9

6Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

348Total Passes354

261Accurate Passes262

75%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.71Goals Prevented-0.71

Discipline

10Fouls14

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Derby vs Blackburn

Derby beat Blackburn 3-1 in Championship on February 28, 2026.

Goals: H. Carter (45'), B. Brereton Diaz (55'), M. Clarke (74'), R. Brewster (82').

Blackburn controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Pride Park in Derby.

Derby vs Blackburn — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Derby vs Blackburn