Derby 2–1 Blackburn: Result & Stats | Championship

Derby

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Blackburn

E. Adams 7'

C. Forsyth 3'

M. Gueye 40'

3/8/2025

Championship · Round 36Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Derby39%

×Draw27%

Blackburn34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.18

Derby

1.27

Blackburn

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 15 away

1.26

creates per match

1.30

1.06

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Derby

1.26

Blackburn

1.30

allows per match

Derby

1.06

Blackburn

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Derby+0.00on par

Blackburn-0.17scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw

66%

Derby or Blackburn

73%

Draw or Blackburn

61%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

17%

Blackburn wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

72%

Derby 2+ goals

36%

Derby 3+ goals

14%

Blackburn 1+ goals

69%

Blackburn 2+ goals

33%

Blackburn 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

53%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.26 + Blackburn defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Blackburn attack 1.30 + Derby defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Derby scores more

39%

level

27%

Blackburn scores more

34%

Derby at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Forsyth

Derby · D

7.7

Match Events

3'

C. Forsyth

7'

E. Adams↳ J. Yates

16'

D. Sanderson← A. Kargbo

40'

M. Gueye↳ Y. Ohashi

42'

Callum Brittain

58'

M. Clarke← S. Langås

64'

T. Cantwell← Y. Ohashi

64'

C. Woodrow← T. Dolan

70'

Harrison Armstrong

73'

K. Jackson← M. Harness

74'

Jerry Yates

81'

Sondre Tronstad

82'

A. Cozier-Duberry← S. Tronstad

84'

Hayden Carter

86'

Matthew Clarke

87'

K. Goudmijn← H. Armstrong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyBlackburn

Overview

30%Possession70%

9Total Shots13

2.23Expected Goals (xG)1.61

2Corners4

15Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots13

2On Target4

2Off Target7

5Blocked2

9Inside Box13

0Outside Box0

Passing

30%Possession70%

207Total Passes484

119Accurate Passes403

57%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

-0.70Goals Prevented-0.70

Discipline

15Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3