Derby 0–4 Blackburn: Result & Stats | Championship

Derby

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Blackburn

A. Armstrong 77'

B. Johnson 15', 12'

T. Dolan 11'

9/26/2020

Championship · Round 3Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 46+ matches

Derby43%

×Draw28%

Blackburn29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.01

Derby

1.30

Blackburn

1.01

Derby creates 29% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 59 away

1.22

creates per match

1.01

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Derby

1.22

Blackburn

1.01

allows per match

Derby

1.01

Blackburn

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Derby+0.00on par

Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Derby or draw

71%

Derby or Blackburn

72%

Draw or Blackburn

57%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

20%

Blackburn wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

73%

Derby 2+ goals

37%

Derby 3+ goals

14%

Blackburn 1+ goals

64%

Blackburn 2+ goals

27%

Blackburn 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

60%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Derby scores more

43%

level

28%

Blackburn scores more

29%

Derby at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

B. Johnson

Blackburn · M

8.6

Match Events

11'

T. Dolan

12'

B. Johnson↳ J. Rothwell

15'

33'

36'

41'

46'

G. Evans← J. Marriott

59'

R. Nyambe← J. Rankin-Costello

66'

Joe Rothwell

68'

H. Chapman← T. Dolan

71'

D. Holmes← M. Bird

76'

M. Whittaker← L. Sibley

77'

A. Armstrong↳ H. Chapman

79'

E. Bennett← J. Rothwell

80'

Wayne Rooney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyBlackburn

Overview

62%Possession38%

15Total Shots23

9Corners4

14Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots23

5On Target10

5Off Target5

5Blocked8

12Inside Box15

3Outside Box8

Passing

62%Possession38%

534Total Passes316

431Accurate Passes245

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4