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Deportivo Riestra vs Comunicaciones — Copa Argentina 2026

Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Comunicaciones
Comunicaciones
2/7/2024Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Alfredo Martín Beranger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Deportivo Riestra72%
×Draw24%
Comunicaciones4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Riestra
1.50
Comunicaciones
0.17

Deportivo Riestra creates 782% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Deportivo Riestra
0.67
Comunicaciones
0.00

allows per match

Deportivo Riestra
0.33
Comunicaciones
2.33

finishing

Deportivo Riestra+0.00on par
Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

88%No
  • No88
  • Yes12

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Riestra ↓

Comunicaciones →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–13%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–028%
1–15%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–021%
2–14%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (28%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Deportivo Riestra or draw
96%
Deportivo Riestra or Comunicaciones
76%
Draw or Comunicaciones
28%

Winning margin

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+
40%
Comunicaciones wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals
19%
Comunicaciones 1+ goals
16%
Comunicaciones 2+ goals
1%
Comunicaciones 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)
95%
Comunicaciones (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
7%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Riestra at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Comunicaciones away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Riestra attack 0.67 + Comunicaciones defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Comunicaciones attack 0.00 + Deportivo Riestra defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Deportivo Riestra scores more
72%
level
24%
Comunicaciones scores more
4%

Deportivo Riestra at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Deportivo Riestra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Riestra vs Comunicaciones

Deportivo Riestra beat Comunicaciones 1-0 in Copa Argentina on February 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Martín Beranger in Temperley, Provincia de Buenos Aires.