Deportivo Riestra 1–0 Comunicaciones

Deportivo Riestra

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Comunicaciones

8/18/2018

Primera B Metropolitana · Round 1Estadio Guillermo Laza (Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Deportivo Riestra39%

×Draw29%

Comunicaciones32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo RiestraExpected goals in this matchComunicaciones

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.03

Deportivo Riestra

1.18

Comunicaciones

1.03

Deportivo Riestra creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 140 away

1.16

creates per match

1.01

1.05

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Deportivo Riestra

1.16

Comunicaciones

1.01

allows per match

Deportivo Riestra

1.05

Comunicaciones

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Riestra+0.00on par

Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Riestra ↓

Comunicaciones →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Riestra or draw

68%

Deportivo Riestra or Comunicaciones

71%

Draw or Comunicaciones

61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+

17%

Comunicaciones wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals

12%

Comunicaciones 1+ goals

64%

Comunicaciones 2+ goals

28%

Comunicaciones 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)

55%

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Riestra at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Comunicaciones away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.20 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Riestra attack 1.16 + Comunicaciones defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Comunicaciones attack 1.01 + Deportivo Riestra defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Riestra scores more

39%

level

29%

Comunicaciones scores more

32%

Deportivo Riestra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Riestra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff