Deportivo Riestra 0–0 Barracas Central

Deportivo Riestra

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Barracas Central

N. Blandi 115'

11/24/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round of 16Estadio Guillermo Laza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Deportivo Riestra47%

×Draw31%

Barracas Central22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo RiestraExpected goals in this matchBarracas Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.70

Deportivo Riestra

1.16

Barracas Central

0.70

Deportivo Riestra creates 66% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

0.84

creates per match

0.83

0.56

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Deportivo Riestra

0.84

Barracas Central

0.83

allows per match

Deportivo Riestra

0.56

Barracas Central

1.48

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Deportivo Riestra+0.16scores more

Barracas Central+0.06on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Riestra ↓

Barracas Central →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Deportivo Riestra or draw

78%

Deportivo Riestra or Barracas Central

69%

Draw or Barracas Central

53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+

20%

Barracas Central wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals

11%

Barracas Central 1+ goals

50%

Barracas Central 2+ goals

16%

Barracas Central 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)

68%

Barracas Central (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Riestra at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.56 · 6 matches

Barracas Central away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.48 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Riestra attack 0.84 + Barracas Central defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.16

Barracas Central attack 0.83 + Deportivo Riestra defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Riestra scores more

47%

level

31%

Barracas Central scores more

22%

Deportivo Riestra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Riestra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. Barbieri

Deportivo Riestra · D

7.9

Match Events

19'

20'

33'

51'

59'

59'

77'

79'

I. A. Guaraz← J. Ruiz

83'

Ivan Guaraz

90'

M. Puig← I. Tapia

96'

Facundo Bruera

101'

N. Manganelli← I. Arce

101'

N. Benegas← J. Herrera

102'

R. Sayavedra← P. Ramirez

105+4'

J. Randazzo← N. Sansotre

106'

107'

111'

115'

117'

118'

120+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoBarracas

Overview

51%Possession49%

18Total Shots9

1.04Expected Goals (xG)1.40

7Corners3

15Fouls18

Shots

18Total Shots9

4On Target1

8Off Target5

6Blocked3

10Inside Box5

8Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

377Total Passes374

269Accurate Passes259

71%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

0.52Goals Prevented0.52

Discipline

15Fouls18

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1