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Deportivo Riestra vs Barracas Central — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestra
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barracas Central
Barracas Central
3/25/2019Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Round 30Estadio Guillermo Laza (Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Deportivo Riestra31%
×Draw32%
Barracas Central37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Riestra
0.89
Barracas Central
1.00

Barracas Central creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Deportivo Riestra
1.16
Barracas Central
0.95

allows per match

Deportivo Riestra
1.05
Barracas Central
0.62

finishing

Deportivo Riestra+0.00on par
Barracas Central+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Riestra ↓

Barracas Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Deportivo Riestra or draw
63%
Deportivo Riestra or Barracas Central
68%
Draw or Barracas Central
69%

Winning margin

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+
11%
Barracas Central wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals
6%
Barracas Central 1+ goals
63%
Barracas Central 2+ goals
26%
Barracas Central 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)
46%
Barracas Central (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Riestra at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Barracas Central away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.62 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Riestra attack 1.16 + Barracas Central defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.89

Barracas Central attack 0.95 + Deportivo Riestra defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Riestra scores more
31%
level
32%
Barracas Central scores more
37%

Barracas Central at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Barracas Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Riestra 0 – 0 Barracas Central

Deportivo Riestra and Barracas Central drew 0-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on March 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Laza (Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires).