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Deportivo Riestra vs Barracas Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestra
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barracas Central
Barracas Central
12/6/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 26Estadio Guillermo Laza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Deportivo Riestra47%
×Draw31%
Barracas Central22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Riestra
1.16
Barracas Central
0.70

Deportivo Riestra creates 66% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Deportivo Riestra
0.84
Barracas Central
0.83

allows per match

Deportivo Riestra
0.56
Barracas Central
1.48

finishing

Deportivo Riestra+0.16scores more
Barracas Central+0.06on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Riestra ↓

Barracas Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Deportivo Riestra or draw
78%
Deportivo Riestra or Barracas Central
69%
Draw or Barracas Central
53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+
20%
Barracas Central wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals
11%
Barracas Central 1+ goals
50%
Barracas Central 2+ goals
16%
Barracas Central 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)
68%
Barracas Central (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Riestra at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.56 · 6 matches

Barracas Central away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.48 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Riestra attack 0.84 + Barracas Central defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.16

Barracas Central attack 0.83 + Deportivo Riestra defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Riestra scores more
47%
level
31%
Barracas Central scores more
22%

Deportivo Riestra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Riestra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
I. ArceDeportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra · G
8.3

Match Events

7'
Facundo Bruera
16'
P. Ramírez← N. Sansotre
19'
Milton Celiz
32'
Milton Celiz
32'
Milton Celiz
46'
M. Duarte← S. Rosané
58'
J. Goitía← B. Sánchez
62'
Nicolás Benegas
65'
M. Zalazar← F. Mater
71'
A. Alonso← J. Herrera
71'
N. Caro Torres← G. Benítez
71'
M. Sanabria← N. Benegas
82'
A. Domínguez← J. Ruiz
90+3'
Manuel Duarte

Possession

33%Deportivo

Shots

10Deportivo

Pass accuracy

41%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoBarracas
Overview
33%Possession67%
10Total Shots17
0.90Expected Goals (xG)1.59
3Corners4
18Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots17
3On Target5
4Off Target11
3Blocked1
8Inside Box7
2Outside Box10
Passing
33%Possession67%
209Total Passes432
110Accurate Passes333
53%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
0.57Goals Prevented0.57
Discipline
18Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Deportivo Riestra vs Barracas Central

Deportivo Riestra and Barracas Central drew 0-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on December 6, 2024.

Barracas Central controlled possession (67%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Laza in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.