Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar

Deportivo Pasto

Preview

01:05

Alianza Valledupar

10/20/2026

Primera A · Clausura - 15Estadio Departamental Libertad

Big match

51%

Deportivo Pasto

model favours

51%28%22%

1–0

likely score

63%

under 2.5 goals

41%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 167+ matches

Deportivo Pasto51%

×Draw28%

Alianza Valledupar22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PastoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.80

Deportivo Pasto

1.38

Alianza Valledupar

0.80

Deportivo Pasto creates 72% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 167 away

1.26

creates per match

0.75

0.85

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.26

Alianza Valledupar

0.75

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto

0.85

Alianza Valledupar

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw

78%

Deportivo Pasto or Alianza Valledupar

72%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

49%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

25%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

40%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

16%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

55%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

19%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

70%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 173 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 167 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.26 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.75 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more

51%

level

28%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

22%

Deportivo Pasto at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Deportivo Pasto

Balanced

Alianza Valledupar

Balanced

46%Possession49%

78%Pass accuracy79%

11.6Shots12.1

1.08xGBiggest gap0.98

Deportivo PastoAlianza Valledupar

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1

Deportivo Pasto

6

Draws

3

Alianza Valledupar

Avg goals: 1.7BTTS: 40%

0–03–30–11–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Pasto

LLLLW

Valledupar

WLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff