Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Deportivo Pasto

Alianza Valledupar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Pasto

A. Rentería 3'

D. Chávez 25'

3/15/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 12Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Alianza Valledupar44%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Pasto27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.92

Alianza Valledupar

1.25

Deportivo Pasto

0.92

Alianza Valledupar creates 36% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

1.24

creates per match

0.85

0.98

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.24

Deportivo Pasto

0.85

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

0.98

Deportivo Pasto

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

73%

Alianza Valledupar or Deportivo Pasto

71%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

56%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

20%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

71%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

36%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

60%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

23%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

62%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.24 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportivo Pasto attack 0.85 + Alianza Valledupar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

44%

level

29%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

27%

Alianza Valledupar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Rentería

Alianza Valledupar · F

7.9

Match Events

3'

A. Rentería↳ E. Batalla

5'

Andrés RenteríaGoal confirmed

14'

25'

44'

46'

46'

J. Castillo← R. Colpa

64'

Santiago Gómez

64'

J. Contreras← M. Gil

64'

S. Cárdenas← E. Batalla

68'

R. Blanco← R. Manjarrés

68'

71'

71'

71'

76'

78'

78'

D. Riascos← S. Tréllez

83'

Andrés Rentería

83'

A. Amaya← D. Chávez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaDeportivo

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots15

4Corners3

7Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots15

3On Target7

7Off Target6

4Blocked2

6Inside Box7

8Outside Box8

Passing

50%Possession50%

365Total Passes382

292Accurate Passes289

80%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls12

4Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0

Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Deportivo Pasto

Alianza Valledupar and Deportivo Pasto drew 1-1 in Primera A on March 15, 2024.

Goals: A. Rentería (3'), D. Chávez (25').

Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.

Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto — Primera A 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Deportivo Pasto