Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Alianza Valledupar

Deportivo Pasto

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Valledupar

D. Moreno 57'

9/30/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 12Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Deportivo Pasto51%

×Draw27%

Alianza Valledupar22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PastoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.87

Deportivo Pasto

1.46

Alianza Valledupar

0.87

Deportivo Pasto creates 68% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 53 away

1.42

creates per match

0.70

1.04

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.42

Alianza Valledupar

0.70

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.04

Alianza Valledupar

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw

78%

Deportivo Pasto or Alianza Valledupar

73%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

49%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

26%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

77%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

43%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

18%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

58%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

22%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

69%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.04 · 53 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.49 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.42 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.70 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more

51%

level

27%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

22%

Deportivo Pasto at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

R. Vanegas

Deportivo Pasto · F

7.9

Match Events

18'

39'

41'

42'

45+5'

45+4'

R. Manjarrés← C. Blanco

46'

I. Alba← J. Franco

46'

V. Mejía← C. Arrieta

57'

D. Moreno↳ R. Vanegas

61'

G. Torres← D. Moreno

62'

D. Chavez

64'

A. Rentería← M. Martínez

64'

E. Batalla← M. Torres

76'

D. Mendoza← S. Orozco

76'

L. Mosquera← J. Pérez

77'

E. Navarro

83'

J. Castilla← R. Vanegas

90+2'

D. Martinez

90+5'

C. Ayala← D. Chávez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoAlianza

Overview

46%Possession54%

17Total Shots11

11Corners1

14Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots11

1On Target4

11Off Target5

5Blocked2

10Inside Box3

7Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

319Total Passes389

257Accurate Passes310

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls11

4Yellow Cards4

6Offsides0