Deportivo Pasto 3–3 Alianza Valledupar

Deportivo Pasto

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Alianza Valledupar

F. Espinal 47'

F. Bone 32'

M. S. Jimenez 17'

C. Lucumi 90' (pen), 52'

E. Torres 45'

10/5/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 14Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Deportivo Pasto50%

×Draw27%

Alianza Valledupar23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PastoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.85

Deportivo Pasto

1.41

Alianza Valledupar

0.85

Deportivo Pasto creates 66% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 126 away

1.28

creates per match

0.79

0.91

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.28

Alianza Valledupar

0.79

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto

0.91

Alianza Valledupar

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw

77%

Deportivo Pasto or Alianza Valledupar

73%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

50%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

25%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

41%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

17%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

57%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

21%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

69%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.91 · 129 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.54 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.28 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.41

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.79 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more

50%

level

27%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

23%

Deportivo Pasto at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

E. Torres

Alianza Valledupar · M

8.0

Match Events

17'

32'

45'

47'

49'

52'

67'

F. Jaramillo← J. Mendez

71'

J. Munoz← W. Fernandez

71'

L. Perez← J. Castillo

73'

J. Hurtado← F. Espinal

76'

M. Gil← J. Munoz

78'

Pedro Franco

81'

S. A. Aponza Cantonil← E. Torres

82'

P. Preciado← Y. Valois

82'

J. Rivas← F. Bone

82'

F. Mosquera← R. Manjarres

87'

Felipe Jaramillo

90+1'

Fabián Mosquera

90+4'

Sergio AponzáPenalty confirmed

90'

C. LucumiPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoAlianza

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots14

2Corners1

16Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots14

3On Target6

3Off Target7

4Blocked1

4Inside Box8

6Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

300Total Passes439

248Accurate Passes377

83%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar

Deportivo Pasto and Alianza Valledupar drew 3-3 in Primera A on October 5, 2025.

Goals: M. S. Jimenez (17'), F. Bone (32'), E. Torres (45'), F. Espinal (47'), C. Lucumi (52', 90' pen).

Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Departamental Libertad in Pasto.

Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar — Primera A 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar