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Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
7/22/2023Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 167+ matches

Deportivo Pasto51%
×Draw28%
Alianza Valledupar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pasto
1.38
Alianza Valledupar
0.80

Deportivo Pasto creates 72% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 167 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto
1.26
Alianza Valledupar
0.75

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto
0.85
Alianza Valledupar
1.50

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par
Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw
78%
Deportivo Pasto or Alianza Valledupar
72%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
49%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
25%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
40%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
16%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
55%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
19%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
70%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 173 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 167 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.26 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.75 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more
51%
level
28%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
22%

Deportivo Pasto at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Alianza Valledupar

Deportivo Pasto and Alianza Valledupar drew 1-1 in Primera A on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Departamental Libertad in San Juan de Pasto.