Deportivo Pasto 3–1 Alianza Valledupar

Deportivo Pasto

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Alianza Valledupar

8/26/2021

Copa Colombia · Round of 16Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Pasto56%

×Draw24%

Alianza Valledupar21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PastoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.96

Deportivo Pasto

1.74

Alianza Valledupar

0.96

Deportivo Pasto creates 81% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

1.80

creates per match

0.84

1.07

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.80

Alianza Valledupar

0.84

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.07

Alianza Valledupar

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw

79%

Deportivo Pasto or Alianza Valledupar

76%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

31%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

82%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

52%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

25%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

62%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

25%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

73%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.80 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.74

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.84 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more

56%

level

24%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

21%

Deportivo Pasto at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff