Deportivo Maldonado 0–0 Central Espanol

Deportivo Maldonado

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Central Espanol

5/31/2025

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Deportivo Maldonado43%

×Draw30%

Central Espanol27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MaldonadoExpected goals in this matchCentral Espanol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.88

Deportivo Maldonado

1.19

Central Espanol

0.88

Deportivo Maldonado creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 24 away

1.37

creates per match

0.96

0.79

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Deportivo Maldonado

1.37

Central Espanol

0.96

allows per match

Deportivo Maldonado

0.79

Central Espanol

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Maldonado+0.00on par

Central Espanol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maldonado ↓

Central Espanol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Maldonado or draw

73%

Deportivo Maldonado or Central Espanol

70%

Draw or Central Espanol

57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maldonado wins by 2+

19%

Central Espanol wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Maldonado 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Maldonado 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo Maldonado 3+ goals

12%

Central Espanol 1+ goals

59%

Central Espanol 2+ goals

22%

Central Espanol 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maldonado (draw refunded)

61%

Central Espanol (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maldonado at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Central Espanol away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maldonado attack 1.37 + Central Espanol defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Central Espanol attack 0.96 + Deportivo Maldonado defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Maldonado scores more

43%

level

30%

Central Espanol scores more

27%

Deportivo Maldonado at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Maldonado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'

R. Tarragona← S. Sequeira

72'

G. Larrazábal← H. Toledo

77'

F. Muñoz← I. Panzariello

77'

J. Pereira← M. Cantera

79'

Agustín Rodríguez← R. César

79'

N. Toloza← E. de León

84'

I. Gonella← K. Alaníz

84'

J. Dupont← L. Gandulfo

86'

J. Poiso← H. Petryk

86'

S. Ramírez← M. Espíndola

Deportivo

Central

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Piñeyro

72'▲G. Larrazábal←▼H. Toledo

79'▲Agustín Rodríguez←▼R. César

79'▲N. Toloza←▼E. de León

86'▲J. Poiso←▼H. Petryk

86'▲S. Ramírez←▼M. Espíndola

Deportivo Maldonado substitutes

LarrazábalRodríguezTolozaPoisoRamírezBermúdezKiddMarinoFuicaGonzález

Manager: P. de Ambrosio

70'▲R. Tarragona←▼S. Sequeira

77'▲F. Muñoz←▼I. Panzariello

77'▲J. Pereira←▼M. Cantera

84'▲I. Gonella←▼K. Alaníz

84'▲J. Dupont←▼L. Gandulfo

Central Espanol substitutes

TarragonaMuñozPereiraGonellaDupontAramburuPeisinoAndradeCuadroArbío

Match Recap: Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol

Deportivo Maldonado and Central Espanol drew 0-0 in Segunda División on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel in Maldonado.

Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol — Segunda División 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol