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Central Espanol vs Deportivo Maldonado — Segunda División 2025

Central Espanol
Central Espanol
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Deportivo Maldonado
Deportivo Maldonado
E. de Leon 41'
A. M. Noble Sequeira 13'
8/19/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 16Parque Palermo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Central Espanol34%
×Draw31%
Deportivo Maldonado34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Espanol
0.99
Deportivo Maldonado
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

creates per match

Central Espanol
1.12
Deportivo Maldonado
1.05

allows per match

Central Espanol
0.92
Deportivo Maldonado
0.86

finishing

Central Espanol+0.00on par
Deportivo Maldonado+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Espanol ↓

Deportivo Maldonado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Central Espanol or draw
66%
Central Espanol or Deportivo Maldonado
69%
Draw or Deportivo Maldonado
66%

Winning margin

Central Espanol wins by 2+
13%
Deportivo Maldonado wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Central Espanol 1+ goals
63%
Central Espanol 2+ goals
26%
Central Espanol 3+ goals
8%
Deportivo Maldonado 1+ goals
63%
Deportivo Maldonado 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Maldonado 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Central Espanol (draw refunded)
50%
Deportivo Maldonado (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Espanol at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Deportivo Maldonado away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Espanol attack 1.12 + Deportivo Maldonado defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Deportivo Maldonado attack 1.05 + Central Espanol defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Central Espanol scores more
34%
level
31%
Deportivo Maldonado scores more
34%

Central Espanol at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Central Espanol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
A. M. Noble Sequeira
41'
E. de Leon
90+9'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Espanol vs Deportivo Maldonado

Deportivo Maldonado beat Central Espanol 2-0 in Segunda División on August 19, 2025.

Goals: A. M. Noble Sequeira (13'), E. de Leon (41').

The match was played at Parque Palermo in Montevideo.