Central Espanol 2–1 Deportivo Maldonado

Central Espanol

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Maldonado

R. Tarragona 65' (pen)

I. Rodriguez 40'

R. Cesar 41'

3/31/2026

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 9Parque Palermo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Central Espanol41%

×Draw25%

Deportivo Maldonado34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central EspanolExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Maldonado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.36

Central Espanol

1.50

Deportivo Maldonado

1.36

Central Espanol creates 10% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.67

creates per match

1.50

1.22

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Central Espanol

1.67

Deportivo Maldonado

1.50

allows per match

Central Espanol

1.22

Deportivo Maldonado

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Espanol+0.00on par

Deportivo Maldonado+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Espanol ↓

Deportivo Maldonado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Central Espanol or draw

66%

Central Espanol or Deportivo Maldonado

75%

Draw or Deportivo Maldonado

59%

Winning margin

Central Espanol wins by 2+

20%

Deportivo Maldonado wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Central Espanol 1+ goals

78%

Central Espanol 2+ goals

44%

Central Espanol 3+ goals

19%

Deportivo Maldonado 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Maldonado 2+ goals

39%

Deportivo Maldonado 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Central Espanol (draw refunded)

54%

Deportivo Maldonado (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Espanol at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Deportivo Maldonado away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Espanol attack 1.67 + Deportivo Maldonado defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Deportivo Maldonado attack 1.50 + Central Espanol defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Central Espanol scores more

41%

level

25%

Deportivo Maldonado scores more

34%

Central Espanol at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Central Espanol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

29'

30'

37'

40'

41'

43'

45'

54'

65'

R. TarragonaPenalty

68'

71'

71'

71'

74'

S. Navarro← M. Aguilera

77'

R. Muniz← M. Alonso

77'

F. Sosa← R. Tarragona

82'

G. Lopez← J. M. Ginzo

87'

M. Gonzalez

87'

M. Gonzalez

88'

G. Di Noia

89'

90+2'

90+2'

90+2'

90+2'

90+15'

90+7'

N. Fuica← C. Tabo

90'

H. Petryk← H. Menosse

90'

E. de Leon← S. Ramirez

Central

Deportivo

25

Segovia

4

▼

Ginzo

3

▼

Menosse

42

Fernandez

22

Ramos

17

▼

Ramirez

8

Gonzalez

14

▼

Tabo

10

Sequeira

21

Espindola

16

⚽

Cesar

39

Rodolfo

17

Fernandez

2

⚽

14

26

4

7

28

▼

Aguilera

30

▼

Alonso

8

▼

Camarda

9

⚽

▼

Tarragona

Manager: Pablo de Ambrosio

17'▲L. Pino←▼F. Camarda

74'▲S. Navarro←▼M. Aguilera

77'▲R. Muniz←▼M. Alonso

77'▲F. Sosa←▼R. Tarragona

Central Espanol substitutes

1Marquez5Navarro22Aramburu10Muniz11Gandulfo16Mendez21Pino20Vera23Gonella27Sosa

Manager: Joaquin Boghossian

82'▲G. Lopez←▼J. M. Ginzo

90+7'▲N. Fuica←▼C. Tabo

90'▲H. Petryk←▼H. Menosse

90'▲E. de Leon←▼S. Ramirez

Deportivo Maldonado substitutes

1Freitas33Fuica32Petryk5Nunez11Lopez20Tormo23Vila80Centeno9Leon15Gonzalez