Deportivo Garcilaso 1–1 Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Deportivo Garcilaso

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

A. Ugarriza 79' (pen)

O. Takeuchi 21'

4/29/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 13Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Deportivo Garcilaso46%

×Draw25%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo GarcilasoExpected goals in this matchClub Deportivo Los Chankas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.25

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.61

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.25

Deportivo Garcilaso creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.21

creates per match

0.92

1.58

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.21

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.92

allows per match

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.58

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

2.01

+0.62scores more than expected

finishing

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

Deportivo Garcilaso+0.62scores more

Club Deportivo Los Chankas-0.47scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Garcilaso ↓

Club Deportivo Los Chankas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo Garcilaso or draw

70%

Deportivo Garcilaso or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

75%

Draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+

23%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals

80%

Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals

48%

Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals

22%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

71%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

36%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)

61%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Garcilaso at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.58 · 6 matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.21 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.61

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 0.92 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Garcilaso scores more

46%

level

25%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

30%

Deportivo Garcilaso at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

C. López

Club Deportivo Los Chankas · M

7.9

Match Events

21'

O. Takeuchi↳ C. López

25'

M. Vargas← D. Penny

28'

A. Robles← O. Takeuchi

39'

J. Bazán← A. Gómez

39'

C. Beltrán← D. Ramírez

41'

43'

45+3'

45'

55'

56'

63'

L. Urruti← G. Gentile

63'

M. Cuero← E. Canales

67'

R. Palomino← A. Casquete

67'

J. Cox← Á. Ledesma

72'

Ederson Mogollón

74'

Luis Urruti

75'

Carlos BeltranPenalty confirmed

79'

Carlos López Vanegas

79'

A. UgarrizaPenalty

84'

Rudy Palomino

85'

D. Temoche← A. Robles

90+1'

Axel Chávez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoClub

Overview

60%Possession40%

19Total Shots10

6Corners3

8Fouls17

Shots

19Total Shots10

3On Target4

9Off Target2

7Blocked4

9Inside Box5

10Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

320Total Passes219

258Accurate Passes154

81%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls17

4Yellow Cards7

3Offsides2