Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1–0 Deportivo Garcilaso

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Garcilaso

Á. Ledesma 17'

9/29/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 13Estadio Los Chankas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas48%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Garcilaso26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Deportivo Los ChankasExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Garcilaso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.05

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.53

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.05

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 46% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 60 away

1.74

creates per match

1.13

0.98

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.74

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.13

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.98

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par

Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Deportivo Garcilaso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw

74%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Deportivo Garcilaso

74%

Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso

52%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

25%

Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

78%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

45%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

20%

Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

65%

Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

Deportivo Garcilaso away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.74 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.53

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.13 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

48%

level

26%

Deportivo Garcilaso scores more

26%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Sotillo

Club Deportivo Los Chankas · G

8.3

Match Events

17'

Á. Ledesma↳ D. Carabaño

43'

Jorge Bazan

46'

M. Cuero← A. Ugarriza

46'

E. Gonzáles← D. Ramírez

57'

Erick Gonzales

62'

E. Perleche← E. Canales

62'

A. Chicaiza← J. Bazán

64'

A. Robles← O. Takeuchi

74'

D. Carando← M. Cuero

75'

E. Mogollón← M. Ruidías

76'

R. Salinas← C. López

82'

D. Temoche← D. Carabaño

83'

G. Sánchez← Á. Ledesma

90+4'

Aldair Salazar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubDeportivo

Overview

61%Possession39%

15Total Shots13

3Corners8

14Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots13

6On Target6

6Off Target6

3Blocked1

9Inside Box12

6Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

428Total Passes254

355Accurate Passes191

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls12

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2