Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0–1 Deportivo Garcilaso

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Garcilaso

B. Da Silva 52'

5/4/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 13Estadio Municipal Los Chankas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas48%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Garcilaso26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Deportivo Los ChankasExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Garcilaso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.05

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.53

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.05

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 46% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 60 away

1.74

creates per match

1.13

0.98

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.74

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.13

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.98

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par

Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Deportivo Garcilaso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw

74%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Deportivo Garcilaso

74%

Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso

52%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

25%

Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

78%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

45%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

20%

Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

65%

Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

Deportivo Garcilaso away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.74 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.53

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.13 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

48%

level

26%

Deportivo Garcilaso scores more

26%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Quiroz

Club Deportivo Los Chankas · M

8.5

Match Events

20'

28'

37'

40'

45+4'

52'

B. Da Silva↳ K. Sandoval

63'

A. Graneros← C. Olivares

63'

J. Sinisterra← C. Torrejon

63'

J. Portales← C. I. Ramos Rodriguez

66'

J. Quintero← F. Torres

66'

B. Guevara← A. Quintana

76'

A. Ayarza← K. Sanchez

76'

K. Barrios← O. Takeuchi

80'

J. Posito← D. Gonzales

86'

S. Villacorta← K. Sandoval

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubDeportivo

Overview

66%Possession34%

15Total Shots7

6Corners4

11Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots7

4On Target3

9Off Target1

2Blocked3

12Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

465Total Passes247

375Accurate Passes157

81%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Deportivo Garcilaso beat Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1-0 in Primera División on May 4, 2026.

Goals: B. Da Silva (52').

Club Deportivo Los Chankas controlled possession (66%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Los Chankas in Andahuaylas.

Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Deportivo Garcilaso — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Deportivo Garcilaso