Deportivo Cuenca 2–2 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

LDU de Quito

L. Mancinelli 76'

P. Magnín 45' (pen)

L. Alzugaray 41'

M. Estrada 17'

6/2/2024

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 15Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca39%

×Draw26%

LDU de Quito34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.24

Deportivo Cuenca

1.34

LDU de Quito

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 136 away

1.54

creates per match

1.37

1.11

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.54

LDU de Quito

1.37

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.11

LDU de Quito

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

66%

Deportivo Cuenca or LDU de Quito

74%

Draw or LDU de Quito

61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

18%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

39%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

15%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

71%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

35%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

53%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.11 · 132 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.54 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.34

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

39%

level

26%

LDU de Quito scores more

34%

Deportivo Cuenca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

W. Chalá

Deportivo Cuenca · M

8.5

Match Events

17'

M. Estrada

41'

L. Alzugaray↳ A. Arce

45'

P. MagnínPenalty

63'

M. Angulo← L. Estupiñán

65'

Gabriel Villamil

75'

R. Becerra← W. Chalá

75'

J. Charcopa← G. Villamíl

76'

L. Mancinelli↳ D. Luna

79'

M. Piedra← A. López

85'

L. Arroyo← D. Luna

85'

V. Branda← N. Romero

90'

Ivan PiedraPenalty cancelled

90+3'

S. González← L. Alzugaray

90+3'

M. Parrales← D. Romero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoLDU

Overview

59%Possession41%

18Total Shots9

4Corners4

7Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots9

10On Target5

7Off Target3

1Blocked1

14Inside Box7

4Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

414Total Passes291

338Accurate Passes205

82%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

7Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0