Deportivo Cuenca 0–1 Aucas: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Aucas

A. Lopez 4' (OG)

7/12/2026

Liga Pro · Round 18Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca46%

×Draw27%

Aucas28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchAucas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.03

Deportivo Cuenca

1.41

Aucas

1.03

Deportivo Cuenca creates 37% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

1.43

creates per match

1.03

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.43

Aucas

1.03

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.03

Aucas

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Aucas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Aucas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

72%

Deportivo Cuenca or Aucas

73%

Draw or Aucas

54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

22%

Aucas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

41%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

17%

Aucas 1+ goals

64%

Aucas 2+ goals

28%

Aucas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

62%

Aucas (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Aucas away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.43 + Aucas defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.41

Aucas attack 1.03 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

46%

level

27%

Aucas scores more

28%

Deportivo Cuenca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

A. LopezOwn goal

11'

33'

40'

46'

58'

65'

R. Bolanos← S. Porozo

69'

M. Klimowicz← G. Rivero

69'

M. Diaz← L. Mancinelli

72'

J. Mejia← M. Maccari

80'

T. Serpa← E. Preciado

80'

89'

90+1'

90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff