Aucas 0–1 Deportivo Cuenca: Result & Stats

Aucas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Cuenca

A. Lopez 81'

3/8/2026

Liga Pro · Round 3Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Aucas45%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Cuenca28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AucasExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.00

Aucas

1.35

Deportivo Cuenca

1.00

Aucas creates 35% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

1.61

creates per match

0.94

1.06

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Aucas

1.61

Deportivo Cuenca

0.94

allows per match

Aucas

1.06

Deportivo Cuenca

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aucas+0.00on par

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aucas ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Aucas or draw

72%

Aucas or Deportivo Cuenca

73%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

55%

Winning margin

Aucas wins by 2+

21%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aucas 1+ goals

74%

Aucas 2+ goals

39%

Aucas 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

63%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

26%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Aucas (draw refunded)

62%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aucas at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.06 · 31 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aucas attack 1.61 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.94 + Aucas defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aucas scores more

45%

level

27%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

28%

Aucas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

F. Ferrero

Deportivo Cuenca · G

8.2

Match Events

46'

J. Ordonez← D. Gonzalez

46'

G. Rivero← N. Leguizamon

50'

Santiago Postel

64'

J. Chacon← M. Diaz

65'

Jhon Ontaneda

65'

C. Arboleda← L. Mancinelli

67'

D. Luna← A. Mena

67'

R. Bolanos← S. Porozo

68'

Luis Arroyo

73'

E. Japa← L. Arroyo

73'

M. Vera← P. Guzman

76'

E. Guevara← B. Garcia

78'

Maverick Vera

81'

A. Lopez↳ C. Arboleda

82'

A. Sosa← R. Quinonez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AucasDeportivo

Overview

63%Possession37%

13Total Shots9

9Corners3

12Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots9

4On Target1

6Off Target6

3Blocked2

7Inside Box3

6Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

472Total Passes281

405Accurate Passes205

86%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1